GDay all, ADO. Like I said yesterday, I took a position late afternoon. It was last day T+3ers selling, selling volume almost dried up, shorts should be looking to cover their position soon (the closing minutes of yesterdays trading already confirmed this). And iv seen many times after such a huge rally, the price tends to fall back to 61.8% fib retrace level. However, ADO displayed amazing strength, bouncing off 6.1 twice. I believe the strength could be from the pros behind the initial pump & now offering price floor protection. After all, there are still 30ml heads & 60ml oppies to be approved this Fri, theyl possibly need to get the pump going again to make sure enough volumes & lucrative SP still remains when they get the shares. Im also quietly hoping for a hattrick ann to match with the upcoming share issue.
BAS. I traded out this one after it failed to close above 5c 2 days ago, but im still watching closely as the speeding ticket raised the general awareness of the huge undervaluation on BAS. 4/4.2c should act as solid support & I will wait for volume confirmation & bullish indicators on charts to jump on again.
CDY. Pros are definitely at work on this one (check the market depth & 4ml bids just moved one pip up). In the wake of ADO & VLA, this one smells like ADO #3 in many ways (1st tranche placement was issued 2 months back but was never pumped & now 2nd tranche coming 1 Mar). Just be very cautious though as the price fell from high of 4.2 to 3.4 very quickly on the back of speeding ticket. Volumes also dropped significantly, pros could be resting to avoid ticket again. My explanation on RTL also applies here. Theyr capping to stay off ASXs radar. I strongly believe pump will happen, only question is when. Given 2nd tranche to be issued on 1 Mar, so could be 2 weeks prior to that, as in ADOs case. Iv traded out as it could be a months wait but still keeping an eye on volume.
FAR. Thanks to PLMs observation last night, I think the roughly Dragonfly Doji candle (could have been a Hammer too if it wasnt for 3000 share sale) looks quite bullish. I noticed during Dec, everytime FAR had a Dragonfly Doji or Hammer, it had a run the next day & pre-Xmas profit taking ruined the momentum afterwards. Thanks to Kevi & Haspetes contribution last night, I can comfortably say stochastic just bullishly crossed on ST Daily charts too. FAR is sitting right under the downtrend line & also right beneath the upper line of flag formation. It has consolidated for almost 2 months now & so a breakout could be on the cards? The super tight Bollinger bands would suggest an explosive move if FAR does breakout in strong volumes. Waiting for volume confirmation & a break above 7c to take a position.
GBP. The Dragonfly Doji I mentioned yesterday seems to get our momentum going again, closing at 20c. Like I said, expect 23c next stop & massive moves the closer we get to spudding date.
PNO. Watch volumes closely. It is said to launch a bio product onto market this month (the marketing side is the key IMO) & it tends to run along with OBJ. Again exercise caution as this one is a typical P&D.
ROG. 100% interest in Surat Basin permits (potential gas-in-place of 8 TCF!). Spudding late this month, so a pre-spudding rally soon? Majors (BG, Origin & Arrow) drilling nearby. JV with CTP already made coal discovery in NT, which can be commercialized as CSG or utilize UCG/UCTL technology. The price has been under sustained selling pressure after issuing shares to the original permit holders for transferring interest & its currently just sitting above the last placement price of 3.6c. With spudding on such massive impact wells just around the corner, I can see the current price level a very cheap price to enter.
RTL. Iv decided to tone down a little on this one. Yesterday the pros taught me a big lesson to not get ahead of myself before any news is officially announced. It was indeed a dump, but IMHO for capping purposes mostly (price surging past 3/3.2c when theyr not ready yet to announce news could spell trouble, ie, ASX queries). Dont think it was P&D though, if they wanted out, they couldv easily got out at 50-100% higher prices given the huge momentum at open & the huge number of DTers yesterday (we all saw IRG, VLA). Pros wouldv let it run its own course & out in the process. The straight dumping at open & then suddenly stops tells me one thing only: they dont want SP & speculation run wild before news, so il just patiently wait.
SGY. Nice acquisition ann yesterday (35mmbbls oil potential spudding 1H). Gas show ann any day now. Could do a VIL run. Yet again another Doji on charts, indicating buying & selling forces are still equal. Volume is still #1 indicator of potential news coming.
Again ORD has been making interesting moves recently, so watch closely.
I have overnight holding on VLA but I will sell at open. If ur game enough, try placing sell one or two ticks above open, may also get hit. A very bullish overseas mkt usually sends me the signal to sell the high flyers at open, but still wish all the best for those who intend to hold.
