Unfortunately we have to Peter. SP is under pressure due to a number of factors:
- Current share market is not buying companies without earnings. STO and WDS are going well as they have earnings NOW.
- CVN has a serious embarrassment of riches (Dorado/Pavo are huge) which is hard to digest. Funding is an issue but I think it can be done . There are risks here but we need to remember the payback period for Dorado/Pavo is about 1 year with POO at USD70 pb.
- There is always the risk of CVN having to do a CR to assist funding Dorado/Pavo. Shorters are punting on this hence current short positions are on the rise. I would be happy to invest at a heavily discounted price. Remember the future cash flows from Dorado/Pavo have not changed. If fact it's better now with POO at USD100+
- FID looks like it's been delayed until later this year.
- STO may be struggling to get away the farm out of part of its share of Dorado/Pavo. With CVN SP this low potential investors may see CVN as a cheaper entry than STO wants. Plus there's all the potential CVN offers. They have barely scratched the surface in the Bedout.
- Oil and gas is on the nose ATM.
- Share market is in a downward trend. It's interesting to note the share market is back to where it peaked way back in 2007 before the GFC. However this does not reflect the generous outsized dividends paid out over this period. The banks have been regularly showering shareholders with dividends for years.
Patient SHs should be rewarded. Others looking for the constant sugar hit of speculative profits should look elsewhere. I always have in the back of mind respected contributors comments that CVN will be snapped up around FID. A takeover at say 30c-40c would be disappointing but certainly a bonus from its near death experience a while ago when CVN rolled the dice for possibly the last time on the Bedout. These are the fortunes of war. Oil and Gas is not for the faint hearted.
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14 | 402173 | 0.150 |
14 | 292453 | 0.145 |
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4 | 462005 | 0.135 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.160 | 55498 | 2 |
0.165 | 305500 | 4 |
0.170 | 1651292 | 14 |
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