Topped up twice today and very happy with my purchases, I think there is a high probability an opportunity will be there to get 16+cents for them within the next 6 months.
In regards to a cap raising at 18c+, I think a group of insto's would need to be offered the opportunity to be involved in a placement at a premium with a good presentation to justify this. The buying would commence and the share price rise to be a self fullfilling prophecy, however I allocate only a 1 in 3 chance of this scenarion occurring in the next 6 months.
A cap raising that involves more retail participation also have a chance, particularly with the stench of the "Babcock" name gone and the gloss of "Alinta" back.
And there is the cornerstone option......and any hybrid of this with soph /retail participation via rights / SPP etc.
Whatever happens the guidance we have on the EBITDA for 2010 is that it's around 288m and there are a few abnormals that net to a favourable 113m on top of that to go with the ITDA. My last notes say 726m shares on issue, this may not still be current but its not far from this level if its not, anyway that's my justification for seeing 16c + here, Earnings and the chance of the debt issues being mitigated! DYOR
DYOR
AEJ Price at posting:
8.7¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
