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78.0¢ avz minerals limited

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geo_au

5,850 Posts.

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29/06/22

12:07

Post #: 62269945
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Originally posted by ericson: ↑

i feel for sone of the worried holders during this period - not the big heads or mouth organs but the genuine folk who lobbed in sone of their hard earned to try and get sone proper return for once . Bravo , I’m with you guys all the way .

all the spec and talk is sickeningly worrying for you folks , I’ve been there , so I thought I’d put sone reasoning down that might make you feel a bit easier and cut across a lot of the crap posted on here (both pump and troll ). Sone folk think I’m in the latter but they know jack .

I’ll start by telling you of an experience I had which may be your worst fears but let me assure you now that I can’t see this happening whatsoever which I will explain below .

I had just Under 50k in wfe , didn’t do proper research and lost the lot . The company was in suspension for best part of 2 years as (I understand) the ASX would not approve a business plan (which must have been for the right reasons) and wouldn’t let wfe relist . They eventually collapsed and a new company took over and I think I got about 1k back . So I know how this feels .

but I really don’t think we have to worry here .

Firstly , even boatman have stated “At worst, AVZ will lose control of Manono and be left with just 36% of the project.”

reread the phrase “at worst”. As I stated before this gets sp well beyond ATH. I reckon we’ll see $2+.

I have no doubt that this corporate mire has been well planned and orchestrated and is anchored as deep as FK’s leadership and the sino - west tussle over africas critical resources (western capitalism cannot really compete with an infrastructure based , government cooperative model ). Now the niaive ( and I include my past self in this group ) can see for example why Huayou stayed invested ; Catl invested via Cath and consistently stalled on the deposit etc .

the dathcom case as we approach arbitration appears (and is )strong for Avz but the commercial pinch points are being wielded with new (equally ludicrous ) claims which go further and now attack Avz legitimate ownership in other areas . Not realistic , but clever reminder to Avz that this could go on indefinitely ; they are up against governments and huge world leading organisations - no chance of Avz coming out with the lions share and a clear path to unlock this massive treasure unless they pay the piper massively . Do that it or have nothing .

I include myself when I say that sone investeors have had very unrealistic beliefs on outcomes and believed that NF and team could cone out of the traps , exclusively owning / managing / controlling the worlds biggest hard rock li asset when prices are rocketing into the stratosphere . It was always in others plan that this wasn’t/isn’t going to happen at any cost . And now we are being introduced to this reality , sickening as it is . But it’s not really that unfair . This is a huge project that requires massive capital investment and infrastructure - it was perhaps always unrealistic for us to believe that Avz would just develop this by matrix managing the great powerhouse players whilst retaining profits and rewards at 50% plus - we are a company of what ? 5 full time directors in Perth ? Yes we have staff in manono but it’s very modest headcount as yet . But we have jorced and progressed through the hard times , so we have a just stake in the profits too.

Our Chinese partners have the money, drive , business organisation , infrastructure know how , govt ties to fast track this . We really do need them and (perhaps reasonably from their point of view) their contribution requires respect and recognition in terms of share of profit , control , status .

I believe the arbitration is really a face saving / superficially acceptable vehicle for Avz , FT (Drc)
And Chinese parties to agree way forward so that all are respected and rewarded . And at this point I remind you what the bears think “At worst, AVZ will lose control of Manono and be left with just 36% of the project.”

I think NF will be negotiating hard but directors know we have done well if we can finish with new ATH. No one could have long term complaints if settled closer to 36% if that ensured $2+.

I hope this opinion helps and that this is at least our “worst” case .

What do others think ?

GLTALTH

Eric

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Let's be clear on ownership, AVZ at worst owns 51%, therefore it is in complete control of the mine. The bone of contention is the 15% which AVZ has legal rights to, that is what arbitration is all about. When/if 15% is added this will take us to 66%. Where you get 36% ownership from remains a mystery to me.

AVZ Price at posting: 78.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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