Youre not factoring in the panic dive AVZ took over 2 days before the TH. SP was heading to $1.50 but purely based on fear it dumped to 78c in 48hrs.. so even by your own logic the SP should be around $1.30 with a 20% downturn.. should a shorter be worried? I think yes.
AVZ Price at posting:
78.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held