This is the exact situation. The main course of the quarterly was served more than a month early. Not that it was a bad move, the price would have tumbled down through 10c if they hadn't and any rally would merely have brought it back to 10c resistance. Doing what they did maintained 10c as support, but as you say, the next move depends on NPAT. I think the amount of organic growth is pretty much known at this point, so all eyes will be on expenses/NPAT.
I expect the market will be slow to respond to the figures. Even if expenses are high we could see it rise for hours, even days, due to the good gross income figures. If the NPAT situation is bad, it could be a long decline over weeks or even months. If it's a more positive NPAT situation the price should rise more quickly. The market seems to initially respond to raw revenue figures and really take its time applying fair value (this has definitely helped me out a couple of times!).
I'm sure if the NPAT situation is great there will be people here telling me 'I told you so' and laughing, despite me already saying it was a possibility and never claiming otherwise. Wait and see, haha!
I do hope the quarterly is positive.
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