The company update in May gave an expected shipment of 650,000 tonnes for the 4th quarter in 8 ships. Two ship loads were at $300US/t.
Assuming the two ships amounted to 150,000 tonnes and assuming an EBITDA margin of $270Aus/ t would give $40m from those two ships. The other 500,000 (if the expected shipments were achieved) tonnes were at indexed prices, and assuming the price was the same ebitda as 3rd quarter which was $138Aus/t. Then those other six shipments would be $69mAus. so it's possible the 650,000tonnes made $109m Aus. Then add the contribution from South Africa, if it was the same as the previous quarter that would add $38m Aus.
It's quite feasible that the company pulled in $147m Aus EBITDA in the past quarter. It's little wonder that the company is confident of paying 10cps dividend, that's only $79.5m.
And people are selling shares sub 57 cents. crazy stuff.
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