This thread really gets a little tiring.
The shareprice is 'down massively' after being 'up massively'. It is on little volume and really doesn't mean much at the moment.
Licence statement isn't remotely accurateHTG have set targets. At the end of February 2022, HTG had 85 licences and an ARR of circa $2.5m. Assuming even a linear acquistion of licences, this would mean that they should be on about 450 licences now (1000-85 / 10 = 90 per month to get to 1000 by year end. 4 months to end of june, is 360, plus 85, 445...call it 450). So you've
at least overstated the expected figureds by 10-30%. However, HTG's licence acquisition is highly unlikley to be linear, most sales (especially in a growing company) are never linear. One would expect a greater proportion of sales towards the bank end of the year. As such, on a more hyperbolic sales trajectory, you would actually expect HTG to have somewhere between 300-400 licenses.
| | Month | Linear Growth (90) | | Linear Growth (100) | | Hyperbolic growth | |
|---|
| 1 | | january | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
|---|
| 2 | | february | ? | 85 | ? | 85 | ? | 85 |
|---|
| 3 | 1 | march | 90 | | 100 | | 50 | |
|---|
| 4 | 2 | april | 90 | | 100 | | 60 | |
|---|
| 5 | 3 | may | 90 | | 100 | | 70 | |
|---|
| 6 | 4 | june | 90 | 445 | 100 | 485 | 80 | 345 |
|---|
| 7 | 5 | july | 90 | | 100 | | 90 | |
|---|
| 8 | 6 | august | 90 | | 100 | | 100 | |
|---|
| 9 | 7 | september | 90 | | 100 | | 110 | |
|---|
| 10 | 8 | october | 90 | | 100 | | 120 | |
|---|
| 11 | 9 | november | 90 | | 100 | | 130 | |
|---|
| 12 | 10 | december | 90 | 985 | 100 | 1085 | 140 | 1035 |
|---|
As such, your 'expected' licence figures could be up to 100% out. I have absolutely no idea where you got '500-600' licenses from.
Sure we want the company to do well and do it quickly, but setting unrealistic expectations (for whatever reason) is not going to assist the shareprice, or shareholder sentitment. Go figure.
HTG has set a target of 1,000 liences. We all hope/trust they are on target. However, we may actually never know how many licenses HTG has. They are reporting to us in MRR. A number of SaaS companies actually hide their licence numbers so that how much they are charging per licence is opaque.
Key component from HTG being the MRR, which if they are on target should be somewhere between $300k - $350k (see earlier post here
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-quarterly-activities-appendix-4c-cash-flow-report.6713023/page-30?post_id=61095866). If they hit this, it won't blow anyone's socks off, but it will be on target and getting what we need done.
Communication hasn't been that bad latelyHTG's coomunication hasn't been great? We had information from the company on:
- 7 June 2022 (Nodestream);
- 10 June 2022 (Investor Update);
- 16 June 2022 (Raas Report);
- 22 June 2022 (Expansion update); and
- Upcoming July Presentation (HTG presentation in Sydney) [obviously not yet occured].
That to me is a fair bit of communication in circa 1 month. Companies cannot simply pump out never ending information, especially if they having nothing to report on. What would be the point? It would be empty filler. I would suggest that the simple acquisition of licences is not 'material'. Unless HTG picked up 50-100 licences in one go, I don't think it would warrant an ASX announceemnt.
I prefer a company that quietly achieves, than one that talks never ending rubbish and produces little.
Cash burnOne thing that I consider is also misconstrued at the moment is HTG's cash burn, the last quarter had some significnat cash burn, which was far in excess of prevous quarters. While I anticipate HTG's expenses to increase as it grows, I don't think that we will see such hefty cash burn as the last quarter - I could very well be wrong on this, but it is something that I am interested to see and hear more about at the upcoming presentation and, of course, in the quarterly. March 2022 cash burn was $3.6m compared with December 2021 cash burn of $1.4m and September 2021 cash burn of $1.5m.
@davroz1865 and
@krusty900 this is not meant as an attack at you, just addressing your comments as well as general sentiment. Apologies if it sounds short.
