Valuation of Lark and stock-holdings, page-49

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Balthazar1

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08/07/22

15:03

Post #: 62444509
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Originally posted by All4Info: ↑

An additional placeholder comment between now and the quarterly (usually released last week of July). And possible other news..

1. Last year LRK released an announcement "Investor Presentation - July 2021" on 6th of July updating whisky under maturation / valuation.

Under continuous disclosure rules the company is required to release information when it is available that a reasonable person would expect is material to the SP.

Now the company has provided previous guidance that NSR is expected to increase 15 - 25% and maturing whisky of 2m litres... If there is no such announcement to confirm this, then it can be reasonably assumed that the EOFY valuation needs to within 5% of that guided valuation for the company to NOT provide an update this week.

So the forecast range is $496m - 540m... Noting Q3 2022 was $422m (1.95m litres at $216) and 2021 EOFY was $236m (1.09m litres at $216 NSR). So we should expect to see in the coming days, or by end of the month a release to the tune of 111% ($260m) increase in whisky under maturation..

2. In Q3 2022 full year guidance of $20 - $24m was reaffirmed (indicating sales forecast of $6.5 - $10.5m in Q4).

If there is an expectation that this is going to be missed, again by 5% or more, and a reasonable person would expect this to impact the SP then an earnings update should be released (if they didnt provide guidance then this would be expected... but they did provide guidance). So if no update on earning, which id probably expect by the end of this week, then we are looking at a base of $19m sales for the year, and 5.5m for the quarter (a $2m increase on the march quarter). 2021 Q4 sales were just shy of $4m. So looking for circa 40% growth on PCP as a base case (assuming no guidance before hand)

Both of the above achieving implied guidance (whisky value) and reaffirmed guidance (sales) is very good news for the SP; IMO.

3. I expect to see some further detail on progress on exporting (i.e. sales to GNT Fine Wines).

One caveat to to the sales forecast and actual results is the timing of the GNT Fine Wines second order (noted in the march Qtly as being expected in June).. If this was missed, then there is higher risk that Q4 sales have been missed....

Just my thoughts, keen to hear any others views.

Cheers.

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I don't think the whisky in barrel is worth any where near what they claim.
Its certainly not worth more than production cost until it is sold in volume at the assumed high value.

LRK Price at posting: $2.70 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
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Last $1.20		Change -0.005(0.42%)		Mkt cap ! $125.6M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.16	$1.20	$1.16	$11.27K	9.665K

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3	49079	$1.16

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
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No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	49079	1.160
3	5265	1.150
1	900	1.140
3	1853	1.130
1	5000	1.100

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.195	15766	1
1.205	25000	1
1.210	26507	1
1.230	418	1
1.235	1000	1

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