Hey JGR,
I've plenty to share, which will all come from an investor who believes he's done his homework, but all that does is reduce risk, doesn't kill it off altogether.
Plenty of great posts about, a few you should read...
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/62316480/singlehttps://hotcopper.com.au/posts/54819198/singleBut top line bullet points from the top of my head...
Global supply
- Russia and Belarus supplied 40% of global potash supply, both now sanctioned
- China heavily restricted exports in November
- even if the war ends tomorrow (this will grind for months), the West needs viable and trustworthy sources... Russia and Belarus won't be supplying Europe for years, maybe decades at best
- prices remain elevated at present. Can't see any near term change. Fertiliser is food, and the need only grows
- Russia and Ukraine supply 30% of global wheat, again, not in the market this year and likely to be severe food shortages coming in Africa, which will increase global and investor awareness
- BRICS nations announcing their strategy... I don't think this is being taken seriously yet but it will. Brazil also a big supplier that'll keep to itself
Transportation
- costs about $100 AUD / t to transport from Canada, where the West now and later will get most of its supply
- not to mention the cost, the green credentials of fertiliser bought on the other side of the ocean isn't good
- BHP spent billions acquiring, drilling and developing their mine
The assets
- SHP has backing from their local Prime Minister to restart mining
- one of the largest European deposits
- $500m drill data that needs about $30m across all remaining projects to upgrade the lot to JORC compliant. We await upgrade for project O imminently
- central European position with minimal transport costs
- cenkos study now a year old, pre inflation and Russia, pegged us at about 30c on feasibility
Analagous examples
- read the first hyperlink I shared. Explains why I think this is at least a 30-40c stock within 12 months
- HFR recently progressed their African asset, and it's far smaller in known scale compared to us
We just need a new MD with the right skills and some time. I've a lot riding in here, but my own views have lead me to buy more. If I'm right, drinks are on me next year. If I'm wrong, someone help me out
Also I think a good portion of the rise to 25c was the expectation of the inevitable results, but the delays damaged us. In a low liquidity market we definitely have some repairs to be done
