So a few more bits of info to hone in on.
-20mtpa
-ilmenite $350-500usd/t
-300mT @ 6.0% THM with prospect delivering the best 100-200mT MREO to feed into SS. (July/Aug completion)
-80% recoveries
-Ti02 level near 50%
-New titano-magnetite 57% Fe and 14.5% Ti)2 which is otherwise been outside all my calc. (still is).
The major assumptions here is that the opex cost is ~$4/t and ilmenite revenue is 380usd/t.
Would be worth doing some sensitivity analysis there and pushing opex cost up and maybe lower ilmenite revenue if one doesn't think the $370usd/t is fair despite it being market price according to SMM.
Also, 200M capex assumed could be lower or higher. I also used discount rate of 8%.
Zircon credit included and excluded.
View attachment 4409665Either way 12M EV is cheap even if the NPV is 100M. That would be 10% EV to NPV which is ok for mine.
Also if they underpin initial studies with only 100-200mT it's obvious that they can increase LoM with the 2bT available, noting that it would be more marginal material and thus on discounted FCF model the NPV decreases over time.
Market still isn't believing the economics or not aware. either way might take the SS/PEA to be put on paper before others are convinced. Low risk downside, has just been an opportunity cost but like where we are at currently.
SF2TH
