Below is updated Coverage from Trend Investing (Seeking Alpha)...Very Long Coverage so I just copy paste some key points:
I also attached full PDF at the end (If you have time to read).
Hope below is useful
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522714-2022-bear-market-bargains-series-pilbara-minerals
Please take care yourself
Remember Keep Calm and Ignore the noiseSummary
- Pilbara Minerals is a leading pure-play lithium producer in Australia with large spodumene production growth ahead, as well as a value-added lithium chemicals production plan.
- Valuation looks attractive on a 2023 P/E of 4.86 and a 2023 dividend yield of 4.13%.
- Risks revolve mostly around lithium spodumene prices and executing their production growth and other plans.
Valuation
Pilbara Minerals current market cap is A$6.86b (US$4.97b) with forecast zero net debt in 2022. As of March 31, 2022, cash was at A$284.9m (inclusive of $75.2m of irrevocable bank letters of credit for shipments).
Forecast 2023 PE is 4.86 and 2023 dividend yield is 4.13%. Forecast 2023 net profit margin is 52%.
Analyst's consensus is "outperform" with a consensus price target of A$3.19 representing 36% upside.
Based "only" on the Pilgangoora Operation, our price target for end 2025 (assumes 1mtpa spodumene production at OpEx US$330/t) is:
Significant further upside if production volumes grew beyond 1mtpa spodumene and potentially from the POSCO or Calix JVs. Given the market deficits for lithium expected this decade, both the above "bull" and "super bull" cases are well worth considering.
- Bear case (assumes spodumene selling at US$1,000/t) - A$1.88 (18% downside).
- Base case (assumes spodumene selling at US$1,500/t) - A$3.36 (46% upside).
- Bull case (assumes spodumene selling at US$3,000/t) - A$7.81 (3.4x upside).
- Super Bull case (assumes spodumene selling at US$4,000/t) - A$10.78 (4.7x upside).
Below is full PDF (If you have time)
2022 Bear Market Bargains Series - Pilbara Minerals.pdf
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