Tiresias: On Waiting

Hofstadter's Law :

"It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's law.”

Douglas Hofstadter

My friends,

Tiresias is optimistic, Tiresias is bullish, Tiresias believes in Optiscan’s technology and its potential to revolutionise cancer diagnosis and cancer treatment. Tiresias’s belief in the prospects of Optiscan however, does not excuse himself from self-examination and questioning of his optimism and his bullishness. He wonders whether he, like the rest of mortals, is victim mortals’ flaw, optimism bias.

Ever since he read Douglas Hofstadter’s “Godel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid”, back in the 1980’s, and “Metamagical Themas”, in the 1990’s, in which Hofstadter formulated his famous law, Tiresias has been acutely aware of the pitfalls of timing of completion of complex tasks. Hofstadter originally applied his law to people assessing their own projects and addresses optimism bias of people’s estimate of their own capabilities. This pro- self-bias we can fully understand. Tiresias also understands that when we come to assessing other people’s projects, humans are subject to pessimism bias, and overestimate the downside of everyone else’s projects. Tiresias, though not a Cynic, would certainly be in this group. Tiresias’s many years, and his observations of follies of mortals, however, have led him to formulate a corollary to Hofstadter's Law when applied to medicine, medical science, and medical technology. One might call it the exponent, or perhaps the Square of Hofstadter’s Law. But Tiresias, and please excuse just a touch of “vanitas”, will use his eponymic title.

Tiresias’s Corollary of Hofstadter's Law:

“It always takes twice as long and cost twice as much, even when you've applied Tiresias’s Corollary to Hofstadter's law.”

Bringing to fruition Optiscan’s in vivo real-time Confocal Laser Endomicroscopy Digital histopathology to cancer diagnosis and cancer surgery may be an instance of Tiresias’s Corollary. There have been many unforeseen, some self-inflicted, others outside inflicted delays, which have us still waiting. A low share price naturally leads to self-examination and questioning. Tiresias is however sangfroid. His belief is undiminished. His calm is unperturbed. He waits and believes.