Share Price Catalysts, page-1608

yea you're right they have been conservative/in line with mgmt actuals. interesting, but i missed this in their latest note (6 Jul). the Q2 numbers are horrible if that is disclosed next couple of days - it means we'll have to wait another quarter or 2 to believe mgmt

We have reduced our production forecast for 2Q22 from ~4.3 mboe/d to 3.7 mboe/d and from 4.3 mboe/d to 4.2 mboe/d in 3Q22. We continue to forecast ~5.0 mboe/d in 4Q22. We have marginally reduced our FY22 production forecasts from ~4.4 mboe/d to ~4.2 mboe/d

So $30m of capex for 9months to Sep, will get us from 3200 (Q4CY21) to maybe 4500-5000 (Q4CY21) - it's not bad but it's a miss from the 5-5500 that management were bandying around late CY21.