MQG

0.24%

$204.50 macquarie group limited

MQG overvalued in the current market, page-57

First 57 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
optimistus

4,636 Posts.

860

28/07/22

13:12

Post #: 62779999
Share

Originally posted by kevinrica: ↑

Thanks for the kind words. This is not advice and this is what I am planning.

This is a macro call and not specific to MQG. I think S&P 500 should decline to at least 3450 to 3500 (please see the reasons behind this value and people who are a lot smarter than me are slowly revising their year-end target eg. BOA). This is the level I am constructive. So at least another 15% down from the current level. From a technical standpoint, it will at least breach the 52-week low set a few weeks ago.

Still, there are few optimistic people l as you can see and most people capitulate before it turns. VIX should be close to 40-45. none of this happened. There are a few other indicators I seek before changing my perception of entry-level.

If I have to think of an analogous period, it is 2001. There was so much irrational exuberance (monetary stimulus, QE, crypto wealth) leading up to this period and this excess has to be flushed out. It takes time. There were bear market rallies sometimes close to 50% in that period. That was truly nerve-wracking for someone waiting on the sideline.

Comparison of Citi to MQG: I respectfully disagree
1. It was one of the most undervalued banks going into reporting. Its PB was close to 0.4. In a very superficial comparison about 60% cheaper than JPM (80% cheaper than MQG).

2. Management changed last year

3. Expectation was very low for the bank going into reporting season and much easier to beat them

4. The main contribution to outperformance was the very volatile trading revenue. As you might have guessed, you could very well lose money as well as from trading. The new management was focused on bringing new people to rectify this and it has worked for them.

5. Citi and MQG are very different banks to MQG. JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are better comparisons.

It is mentally challenging to be a bear.
Everyone has their levels of comfort either actioning now vs waiting. I am prepared to wait as my thesis is FED is going to deliver the hikes (terminal rate of 4 with at least 4-5% persistent inflation), RBA will be dragged on to it and we will have a recession at some time. Banks do not do well in a recession, especially not expensive investment banks. At least this is my thesis.

I hope that helps. DYOR

Expand

How's your thesis working out?

They've called out some short term headwinds but medium term outlook in today's announcement seems positive no?

MQG Price at posting: $178.45 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
9 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

The Big Deal: Free-to-air TV swings the axe, but will it be enough as enormous sports deal bills loom?

STN

Saturn’s stars have aligned for the gold explorer’s Apollo Project

RHI

Red Hill Minerals Signs $6.5 Million Agreement with Peel Mining to Explore Curnamona Project, NSW

Week 27 Wrap: "Election year" is here as UK Labour win contrasts France; Trump wins immunity & annual report season hushes ASX

KGL

KGL sniffs 19% Cu from drilling at Rockface play in NT

ITM

Fast-track assaying yields 182 g/t gold for iTech at new NT play

Has uranium run out of steam? An update on nuclear markets & developments ahead in FY25

Climate change to drive market trends to the moon

TVN

Tivan and EARTH AI gear up to commence fresh drilling at Sandover lead-silver project, NT

LLL

Leo Lithium announces major divestment of flagship Goulamina project to Ganfeng

There are more pages in this discussion • 14 more messages in this thread...

First 57 Last

Add MQG (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last $204.50		Change -0.500(0.24%)		Mkt cap ! $78.31B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$204.90	$205.39	$204.26	$86.07M	422.8K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	1151	$204.50

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$204.65	4472	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	1374	204.310
2	1153	204.250
1	1374	204.190
1	109	204.170
1	1374	204.060

Price($)	Vol.	No.
204.650	4472	1
204.700	250	1
204.920	37	1
204.940	500	1
205.000	756	6

Last trade - 16.10pm 05/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

MQG (ASX) Chart

MQG overvalued in the current market, page-57

The Big Deal: Free-to-air TV swings the axe, but will it be enough as enormous sports deal bills loom?

Saturn’s stars have aligned for the gold explorer’s Apollo Project

Red Hill Minerals Signs $6.5 Million Agreement with Peel Mining to Explore Curnamona Project, NSW

Week 27 Wrap: "Election year" is here as UK Labour win contrasts France; Trump wins immunity & annual report season hushes ASX

KGL sniffs 19% Cu from drilling at Rockface play in NT

Fast-track assaying yields 182 g/t gold for iTech at new NT play

Has uranium run out of steam? An update on nuclear markets & developments ahead in FY25

Climate change to drive market trends to the moon

Tivan and EARTH AI gear up to commence fresh drilling at Sandover lead-silver project, NT

Leo Lithium announces major divestment of flagship Goulamina project to Ganfeng

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

MQG overvalued in the current market, page-57

Top Stories

The Big Deal: Free-to-air TV swings the axe, but will it be enough as enormous sports deal bills loom?

Saturn’s stars have aligned for the gold explorer’s Apollo Project

Red Hill Minerals Signs $6.5 Million Agreement with Peel Mining to Explore Curnamona Project, NSW

Week 27 Wrap: "Election year" is here as UK Labour win contrasts France; Trump wins immunity & annual report season hushes ASX

KGL sniffs 19% Cu from drilling at Rockface play in NT

Fast-track assaying yields 182 g/t gold for iTech at new NT play

Has uranium run out of steam? An update on nuclear markets & developments ahead in FY25

Climate change to drive market trends to the moon

Tivan and EARTH AI gear up to commence fresh drilling at Sandover lead-silver project, NT

Leo Lithium announces major divestment of flagship Goulamina project to Ganfeng

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News