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Ann: FY22 Q4 Quarterly Activities Report, page-17

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Heeman

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28/07/22

15:48

Post #: 62785093
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Originally posted by Roy2U ↑

I agree with you that the Hydroxide EBITDA is the highlight of this report:

The 6722t of Li OH was only their offtake from February to June.

Looking forward to FY23, when Mt Marion should be producing at 600kT of 6% concentrate, MIN's offtake should be 306kT which should convert to at least 20,500t of Li OH. That is triple what they produced in FY22.

My calcs in 2. are only about half of what MIN expect from Mt Marion within the next 4 years. Their HY presentation indicated their share of Li OH should be 42kT of Hydroxide. If achieved, that would be 6x their FY22 share.

The above is only for Mt Marion.

The same presentation indicates that MIN also expects to get 53kT of Hydroxide within 4 years from Wodgina.

The two sites combined within 4 years would then be producing 14 times the FY22 share.

That is 14x EBITDA of US$155M for FY22, within 4 years, providing Li prices are the same as current rates of course.

I accept the above is a bit simplistic as it does not take into account part ownership of their Kemerton Hydroxide plant which should improve margins, but it does give an idea of the scale of EBITDA that MIN can get from its Lithium ventures within the medium term.

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i got similar 2.1b through a different calculation lol.
MIN Price at posting: $53.34 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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