Ann: July 2022 Business Update, page-56

You have to try to see how EBITDA is travelling ("run rate", if you like) in the face of the very dynamic tumult that it is just pulling out of (hopefully), and most importantly try to see where it may be headed. One year's EBITDA tells us about the past. One thing I can tell you about the past with 100% certainty, is that it has already happened. If successful investing was a formulaic process of reading accounts, then accountants & economists would be the most successful investors. They aren't.

So yes, there is high uncertainty here. I am uncertain - and so will not commit too much capital (hence my reference to position restriction). But here's the thing, in this business, if you want returns that are > bond rates, you need to bear risk, and that means accepting uncertainty and even bearing fear & discomfort, and perhaps even embracing a degree of loathing.

The degree of uncertainty and discomfort (and loathing?), versus the upside potential? Well that's a personal matter.