Auto,
Yes, you would imagine that they have to declare the next distribution when they announce the 2022 result late August at the latest.
What will it be?- capital return. Maybe not due to risk of bein deemed an unfranked dividend by the ATO.
- unfranked dividend.
- Off Market Buyback at a price above market
- I am sure that the company have given this a lot of thought, so there may be something much better planned.
How Much and When is the burning question.
They will need to make a provision for Maari abandonment at some stage
Based on the current progress of the new NZ legislation/regulation, I suspect that this would be early 2023 at the earliest.
My best estimate is that they could distrubute
- upto $0.045 at 2022 results in August if you include the usd$9.9m received early July
- upto $0.065 at the AGM (or another $0.02 if $0.045 distribbuted immediately)
These are doeable, but they may want to keep some powder dry.
I think that your numbers are low, and mine may be a bit high.
Either way, there should be significant cash flowing our way in the not too distant future..
(20min delay)