Ann: Quarterly Activities Report, page-25

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gdn001

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29/07/22

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Post #: 62806412
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Originally posted by vandeleur: ↑

I think its important to consider who makes the decisions at HZN. They have a colourful history of decision making.
Mid last year the fund Samuel Terry look a 19.9% stake in HZN and i believe now have board representation. Since then we have had a capital return.
Researching ST....They are deep value but also 'opportunist' investors. Average returns of 20% over a 10+ year period. The CIO Fred Woollard 'carpetbagged' Standard Life and others in the 90's, worked at Hunter Hall, and have more recently made investments in Kiland, Yellow Pages NZ and Diamond Offshore Drilling amongst many others.
My point is, when looking at these investments, and even the HZN write up on their website which is well worth a read, it is clear to me that a very large focus for them is cash and its return to investors, and also financial restructuring of lazy or 'in trouble firms'. I don't believe its necessarily long term growth of companies they invest in. More semi broken companies, sometimes with bad balance sheets, which have been smashed or underappreciated by the market.
My point, despite my waffle is i think they have significant influence at board level as you would assume. HZN is essentially in runoff mode for the next 7 years, possibly more. ST will simply want cash out over these 7 years. Hence i think you will find the majority of $$$ returned to shareholders, and i don't think they will hold back at all and will be aggressive. They have already received 40 - 50% of their initial investment back in the capital return last year. I personally think they will push for another 3c in August and push for a meaningful buyback arrangement. My understanding from reading is they have done this before and this would also navigate and mitigate certain tax issues re franking.
Just my thoughts.

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Spot on vandeleur,
ST want cash out as fast as possible from their HZN investment..
Would obviously prefer something other than unfranked dividends, and I am certain that HZN will find a way until we start paying tax.
.

HZN Price at posting: 14.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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