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Ann: Fluence Q2 2022 Update Presentation, page-10

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mrinvest05

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29/07/22

13:56

Post #: 62810460
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Originally posted by jamesc666: ↑

The 2Q result is not as subdue as I had imagined. A bit discombobulating comparing the figures ex Italian operations with previous year as well as the loosely use of "bookings" of SPS of $8.2m. So just trying to piece together some clues to see if it is actually good news here:

1. The most striking item is the difference between Cash Receipt of $37.8m vs Revenue of $60.2m. It will be interesting to see Trade Debtors movement in the 1H report.

2. Guidance maintain at $143m revenue. That means 2H is expecting Revenue of at least $83m. Assuming 2H2021 gross margin of 22% is indicative of our current revenue composition, We should see a gross profit of $31.5m for this year. If we are able to achieve the corporate running expenses of 20% of revenue, that will come up to $28.6m; so depending on where the interest expenses goes, we might be getting floating above water for once. If the USA Caribbean Water 360 does roll out soon, it would take our margin a bit higher.

3. China operation was a positive surprise to me. The retrofit in Anhui was expected, but the other 7 units sold was a pleasant surprise. Assuming the Anhui revenue was $900k, the 7 units would average $105k each which seems like the price for the Aspiral M3s.

4. 80% of SPS is outside China. ie $6,56m from 1 MABR to Tanzania plus Cambodian retention sum and others would be Nirobox?

What we can at least expect for 2H:
About another $42m from Ivory Coast;
$1.9m from SupplyCore to the US Homeland Security;
About $6.5m for PS3 in Cambodia;
Maintenance contract in Panjin of about $500k;
The other $7m of the $49m contracted backlog for this year and hopefully more sales in China and ROW, US and Caribbean and other recurring....

Whiskey night this evening to calm my mind from over thinking...

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Thanks James, really appreciate your insights yet again. My comment around subdued was more the call itself this morning, it was very short and sharp and didn't really cover much at all. Agree with your points on the detail for the quarter. Thanks

FLC Price at posting: 22.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Fluence Q2 2022 Update Presentation, page-10

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Ann: Fluence Q2 2022 Update Presentation, page-10

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