murmurs of a radical move by cba tomorrow, page-17

LesPaul, you should read my past postings again. Unfortunately the admin deleted (moderated) the original one which spelled out clearly the outline.

I indicated late March (i.e. end of 1st Q) will mark the commencement of the price crash that will last until late 2012. The beginning of the crash cycle will be evident from the prevailing sentiments (for example media commentary), directions (transactions, approvals, borrowings) and participants behaviour of the market.

In some respect, we are (to my surprise) seeing signs associated with the onset of the crash in terms of some vital ingredients : increase in mortgage stress (later to show up in REPO numbers), exhaustion of FHBs, diminishing investors - to be apparent in the next month or two ahead, tightening lending criteria, increasing mortgage intertest rates, increasing (later exponential) in the supply of properties coming onto the market, pull back in buying demand (this will be evident in lower auction clearance rates - no matter how hard they fudge the numbers and a corresponding increase in private sale - as auction will be a recipe for failure, later on an increase in force sales (before imminent REPO) and many more.....

I am not foolish enough to offer specific numbers or yardsticks in terms of statistics at any point in time for 2 reasons. First, I am predicting a trend.

My prediction does not offer you specific targets for specific (region / segment / price brackets..etc) to PINPOINT (you need to speak with Nostradamus for that).

Secondly, the various stats and numbers despite the downward trend will vary tremendously to suit the agenda of a myriad of sources. But the trend will be unmistakable over the duration of the crash.

What I do provide is a timeframe (duration) and what I believe to be the median price fall for Melbourne (45% - 50%) from Dec quarter peak.