guess the dividend, page-2

10cps would be a paltry NZ$17.5M.

Their guidance is 50% - 80% of adjusted FCF (That is, FCF that does not include cash from any asset sales).

Owner Earnings will be a good proxy for FCF.

EBITDA guidance = $150M - $160M. Let's take the lower end to start with...

• Subtract $35M lease costs = $115M
• Subtract $50M CAPEX = 65M
• Subtract $25M tax = $40M

Add $10M to those figures for top end guidance, and you get $50M.

So we should expect FCF somewhere between $40M - $50M (a very similar range of Earnings Guidance, as it transpires).

So low end divvy should be somewhere between $20M - $32M (50% to 80% of $40M)

High end divvy range should be somewhere between $25M - $40M (50% to 80% of $50M).

I would be shocked if they paid any less than $30M for the dividend (an amount that can be sustained in future years).

Then there is the question about what they do with the remaining ~$120M cash in the bank. They will want to keep a chunk, but how much do they return to shareholders? And in what form?

Let's say they keep $70M and return $50M (ideally it would be the other way around, but this is Sky TV we are talking about...)

$30M buyback programme and a $20M special divvy perhaps?

@MarsC