You are not accounting for the problematic inefficiencies of an ICEV and the need to continue exploring for and production of oil, then refining it to a useable product.
You could factor in the second use of batteries and recyclability of battery materials at end of life, the speed at which solar and wind generation is being deployed.
A few fun facts
- The carbon intensity of all materials mined and produced to build a wind turbine are off-set after after ~6 months of operation. In 2021, total global electricity from wind and solar was 2,895 TWh, enough to power whole of Europe, and the solar + wind electricity generation in China was 982TWh, more than enough to meet Canada and Mexico's combined needs.
- Road transport contributes ~20% of global emissions,
- Off-sets of all materials for a typical passenger EV is on average 2 years, based on 15,000 km's per year. Lower operating and maintenance costs.
- Off-set time line for commercial EV's (taxis, trucks, busses, forklifts etc) is much lower given hours on road per day, and less cost to operate
- Less downtime for maintenance for EV's due to less moving parts in an EV (tail shafts, exhaust pipes, gear box, differentials, etc), and the supply chain relative to ICEV's is smaller, thus less materials and emission intensive. What were they thinking,
Yes, it will take some time for recycling to make a meaningful contribution, but that's all part of the net zero 2050 plan, the inconvenient choices are, maintain ICEV's, continue producing, shipping and burning FF.
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