Cheers, HS… I’ll add a couple of points of my own:
As a consequence of the invasion, YTD pricing has jumped over 240% this year, and while it has recently pulled back from its €1,000/t highs, the European benchmark price is still in the €850/t range. We continue to use a conservative LT price of US$400/t for valuation and earnings purposes.
- except €850 = US$876 !!
The funding gap, on our numbers, is ~€130mn. Given the current focus on security of supply, and the fact that Muga is the only advanced new potash development in Europe, we continue to believe that HFR will be able to secure strategic/offtaker support for project funding.
- Agree and IMO this is the key to taking the brakes off and true revaluation will result… seems this will occur next Q:
HFR is targeting a final investment decision for Muga Stage 1 (0.5Mtpa) in the SepQ with first production by mid-to-late CY24. With this in mind, we expect to see the conclusion of the final regulatory approvals, debt financing and strategic/offtake process in the near term.
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