Yep there is upside potential to the reserves for sure. Currently the 2P reserves are 13.6bcf of helium. If you consider global usage today is about 6bcf of helium per year the 13.6bcf is enough at current usage to supply 10% of global helium needs for about 20 years. Going forward global helium usage is projected to increase to maybe 9 or 10bcf per year if demand for high tech applications and the space industry really increase. Then going forward also the emphasis on the green transition where Renergen's helium reserve has been classified as renewable by the Petroleum Agency of South Africa I believe meaning other sources of helium not seen as friendly to the environment may struggle going forward.
Looking at the potential from increasing Renergen's helium and natural gas (methane) reserves:
Going back prior to the 2021 reserves update from Sproule:
2P helium reserves were 3.4bcf
C2 Contingent helium resources were 14.4bcf
Mid case Prospective helium resources were 106bcf
2P methane reserves were 138bcf
C2 Contingent methane resources were 435bcf
Mid case Prospective methane resources were 1278bcf
After the Sept 2021 Sproule Reserves and Resources update I think we had the following correct me if I'm wrong
2P helium reserves were 13.6bcf
C2 Contingent helium resources were 18.7bcf
Mid case Prospective helium resources were not specified I think
2P methane reserves were 407bcf
C2 Contingent methane resources were 562bcf
Mid case Prospective methane resources were not specified I think
Its noted in a slide below that both the Contingent and Prospective areas are not yet explored and could have more resources than the reserve area
Inground value of current reserves overall if I'm calculating correctly:
13.6bcf reserves of helium at average of US$590/mcf (35% at 850/mcf and 65% at 450/mcf) is US$8.024b
407bcf of reserves of methane at US$20/mmbtu is US$8.14b
Helium + Methane reserves total = US$16.164 billion
Then potentially over time the reserves could increase substantially if you consider only 14% of the Virginia Gas Project land area has been properly explored.
In addition there is potential from the cryo-vacc which hasn't seen any recent updates but it sticks in my mind the big potential of it detailed nine months ago Nov 2021 in the Alan Kohler Eureka Report.
