I feel like you're arguing a point that I'm not necessarily trying to prove.
If SHP progresses into DFS and is left with a huge permitted resource with world-class IRR but an empty purse, which is looking likely, then that's the point at which one of three things happens
- That purse remains wide open in perpetuity. Every investor gets upset. This is a possible outcome, as it is for every single spec stock. But this is where rewards can lie if other scenarios come to pass
- They somehow get funding - plenty of points mentioned previously about how $660m USD is not much money when you can pay it back in 3 years. Even if that goes to $1bn USD the IRR is still strong, and it's to restart a mining industry, not start with a pure green field. There are also many ways to fund, including off-takes, debt, CRs, etc
- Buyout - someone with deep pockets and a need buys up the project and fronts the capital. If an Allana happens to SHP, I end up 5 x. That's success in my book
Is it risky? Yeah. But for me and many others it's a measured risk worth taking for the potential gains. Your points about comparison of this single project to other single projects are fair in part, but they're not in central europe ($100USD/tn shipping from Canada for example). Just because you're a net importer doesn't mean it's your ongoing strategy for the future.
The other project you state is also in Etheopia, where Allana was. That's $40USD/tn shipping to Europe. That's an additional 10%+ of the potash basket price....
There are many other strong points for the SHP project - not to mention the opportunity to scale up with the other projects they own and wash out the competitors
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