Well, I paid $30k for a 6.6 kW system with a single gen 2.5 ZBM. Which means that the absolute maximum I would reasonably expect to pay for a gen 3 (without going out and actually getting a quote, mind) would be around $15k, after taking into account the cost (in my solar system) of the panels, the labour to install them, the inverter, the charger, and so on and so forth.
Whether that would be sufficient to cover Redflow's cost of production (materials, labour, shipping, etc.) is a separate question; that said, the entire point of the Gen3 was to bring down production complexity and costs.
So, short version: I reckon anywhere between $900 and $1500 per kWh of storage for Gen3. That's a back of the envelope calculation, and could easily be well outside reality - but if it's well outside reality on the cheap side, then Redflow is going to struggle in the market, and I don't think that's the case. (If it's well outside reality on the expensive side, Redflow is going to romp it in.)
For what it's worth, I stumped up the $30k for the maximum amount of shares in the SPP. It's a combination of a reasonable belief that Redflow stands a decent chance of taking off now that the Gen3 is out there (and there's increased interest in the USA especially), and a desire to put my money where my mouth is on cleaning up our energy system. Still highly speculative, but I'm going in with my eyes open, well aware that it could all go pear shaped for me. No regrets if it does. (This is my situation; I do not expect it to apply to anybody else.)
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