Interesting that Morgan Stanley, joint lead manager on the IPO, has finally capitulated on Nuix's fantasy-like valuation with a massive reduction in the price target to $0.90 per share (based on a discounted cashflow of the business IN 12 MONTHS TIME). That's a kind way of saying that the current price is either fair value (or overvalued) depending on one's view of execution risk.
Gobsmackingly, the bear case valuation is $0.10 per share (if the litigation mattes go against it) - this is effectively a wipe out for equity holders. Their report notes that for many investors Nuix is "effectively uninvestible" as many have been speculating for months.
At this point, you would have to be beyond serially optimistic to remain a holder of Nuix shares.
NXL Price at posting:
69.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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