valuation, page-33

"You know that for sure nathan?"
If oppies were in the money a bank would be an easy source of finance. Now with the oppies possibly not in the money for much longer(if at all) it clearly becomes easier to raise in a CR, with the added bonus of it being to assosciates. A CR is a negative and more likely now than before- that was my point.

"Well, ah...yes of course. the bottom interval was never considered an oil producing interval. READ the presentation from last year."
I know the lower interval was never going to have oil, but many posters on here were saying it was a certainty. and had high hopes of substantial upside to the reserves. With no oil in the lower interval there must be more reality that the upside case is less likely now.

"For a start, the initial flow will not be the final commercial flow"
I agree. Im sure due to the low cost that this will be commercial, and im confident the flow rates will improve, but also safe to say the 1500bopd bandied about will not be achieved.

"Secondly, who in their right mind would concrete in a commercially viable interval on "maybe" getting commercial oil up higher?"
Thats my whole point. Its a BIG MAYBE. If they knew or had confidence we would know. Thats why i think 10mil is very optimistic.

Consider its a big maybe, than VILO, after the last announcement becomes even riskier. Note my negativity is only towards VILO. I still think VIL can be a good investment.

But i do think many over estimated the reserves, time will tell. But more importantly, i think some people get ahead of themselves regarding valuations based on those reserves. How does 50% of FP stack up against the sum total of all of GGP producing assets?

GGP has commercial wells, but they are bread and butter stuff, not company makers. Just feel that VIL is more a long term growth prospect than a sudden $100mil company.

At current market cap there is upside.

But they are merely my opinion.