a theory going nowhere - volumes

MTB HAS 118 000 000 SHARES IN ISSUE, OF WHICH
32 800 000 ARE HELD BY DIRECTORS, ASSOCIATES, MYSELF AND A COUPLE OF MY COLLEGUES, NONE OF WHICH I WOULD ASSUME ARE FOR SALE.

THIS LEAVES 85 200 000 POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SHARES.

MY VIEW IS THAT A SIZABLE PORTION OF THESE SHARES ARE HELD BY THE LIKES OF WH IRELAND AND OTHERS WHO I WOULD ASSUME ARE TAKING A LONG TERM VIEW ON THE SHARES WITH A TARGET IN DOLLARS, NOT CENTS. LETS ASSUME (FOR THE SAKE OF BEING CONSERVATIVE) 50%.

THIS LEAVES 42 600 000 (AUD 4.6M OR £ 1.8M CAPITALISATION AT TODAYS PRICE) POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SHARES. THIS IS A VERY SMALL CAPITALISATION.

WE HAVE SEEN ABOUT 10 000 000 SHARES TRADED/IN THE SYSTEM THIS MONTH (SO FAR), THATS 23% OF THE POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SHARES.

LAST MONTH ONLY ABOUT 900 000 SHARES TRADED OR 2% OF THE POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SHARES.

....WHERE AM I GOING ON THIS?
THERE IS A LIMITED AMOUNT OF STOCK IN CIRCULATION, A SIZABLE PORTION OF THIS STOCK HAS BEEN BOUGHT UP THIS MONTH (WE ASSUME BY OVERSEAS INVESTORS), THIS HAS TO PUT PRESSURE ON THE SUPPLY/DEMAND RELATIONSHIP AND SHOULD HAVE A PRICE EFFECT.