Ann: Euroz Hartleys Quarterly Energy Series, page-19

That slide caught up eyes too. The 500-600mn revenue had already been socialised in various broker notes (can't remember which ones) and even STX themselves. What I don't recall seeing before is the projected cost of production (US78/t). They are obviously very confident with the sell down based on their discussions with various parties to date because STX's intended post-farmout position has increased from 20-30% to 40-50%. The moment that farmout happens, it instantly adds 600m to our balance sheet as they can lock in the carrying value of the project based on the sale of that 50% (essentially someone buying 50% for 600m by paying for our share of the 1.2bn capex). In addition, I still don't think they have shared any details of how they plan to structure the commercials for the gas feedstock into Haber. Will they charge the spot price for the feedstock to the partner (50% net to the partner) or is the feedstock included as part of the price for the farmout?

Either way, a year or two after the project is live, STX will be swimming in so much FCF that I'd be surprised they don't pay out some token dividend. Even with 2bn shares on issue, a 1c dividend will "only" cost the company 20mn. It will be a good way for the company to make use of all the franking credits they will be accumulating once they start paying income tax

5 years is not long at all. In a blink of an eye, my once toddlers have become teenagers

618