Think you are on the money here, Twig is playing a waiting game to see if they can raise the money.
And he's being paid 11.4% to wait, and he is secured.
Iluka will be up and running by 2025 with their product, so that will also muddy the waters somewhat.
They are in this space already, having sold monazite to the Chinese in the last couple of years.
Additionally they sell product to the US, not monazite, but their supply chains have had the US as a customer for a long time.
They are the most likely to benefit from any US interest in Aussie Rare Earths imo
Ann: Investor Presentation August 2022, page-5
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