The published NPV at gold $1,750 is around $800m presently. You can legitimately add back the capex as there is no debt meaning the NPV is around $1 billion before inevitable upgrades for more ore. This equates to about A$1.45 per share. Based on comps the market should give TIE around 80% of that once the company is in steady state production, equating to about $1.15 per share before LOM upgrades.
But again I stress that it is almost certain that the 5% shareholder and/or affiliates are looking to ‘steal' the company. It's incredibly hard to make significant money in the stock market - and I don't mean GLPG 'now you see me now you don't' fooling around. It's very easy to buy bad shares but on the rare occasion that you buy a good share for the long pull it's very disheartening to have the rug pulled from under you.
The only remedy to prevent a lowball bid is to get the stock going. I hope and pray that management is focused on this - can't imagine that they aren't. TIE is a great story and they should be lining up quality brokers to follow the story and publish. TIE is probably the most advanced developer in West Africa currently. There are a number of companies actually mining and there are plenty of hopefuls but I don't believe that there is another company which is advanced as TIE. Go figure. . . .
TIE Price at posting:
52.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held