Ann: Revenue Growth Drives CLINUVEL's Full Year Profit, page-4

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31/08/22

09:59

Post #: 63426089
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Originally posted by MPolo: ↑

Clinuvel are very cautious regarding their finances. They have spent 55 million over the past two years of their committed 175 million spend by end of June 2025. That looks like a planned spend of 35 million in FY23, 40 million in FY24 and 45 million in FY25 or something closely resembling that (see page 50 of their Annual Report). They have 121 million in the bank and a forward commitment to spend 120 million over the next three years.

On the revenue side FY21 revenue was 48.45 million, FY22 revenue was 66.38 million, a 37% increase year on year, following a 43% increase in revenue between FY20 and FY21. What will revenue be for FY23? Clinuvel does not provide guidance on revenue, (part of their cautious approach), but they did say that market penetration for Scenesse for EPP is only about 2 or 3% (that estimate provided by independent analysts). Hence they do not need much of an increase in market penetration for their revenues to continue to grow quite quickly. The next couple of quarterlies will give a good guide. For FY23, a 20% increase on FY22 would be about 80 million and a 30% increase would be about 86 million. Naturally they have very high patient retention (well over 90%) because patients clearly believe in the treatment and want to continue with it, so once a patient starts using Scenesse, revenue from them has a annuity style element to it.

FY22 has been a transition year where they went from an NPAT figure having virtually no tax in it, to an NPAT figure paying full tax and even a provision for future tax. That transition only happens once, so future increases in revenue will much more flow directly to the bottom line. Will be interesting to follow their next revenue results together with the progress of all of their various studies.

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Agreed, they've brought tax provisions into FY22 to set a low base for earnings growth over the next few years.

CUV Price at posting: $17.36 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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