PDY 0.00% 0.7¢ padbury mining limited

explain this to the uneducated, page-7

  1. 1,263 Posts.
    Some very good points red-frog. I may expand slightly for the time being. I have a planned update to the blog when I get time that shows the "recipe" or "road map" to success for PDY. You have already touched on some of the points.

    Here is the brief:

    Conduct 3000-4000m drill program @ Telecom Hill (they should do as many holes as they can afford IMO)
    Define inferred JORC (>25Mt)
    Raise $7M through options (Tranch 1 unlisted)
    Conduct 20000+m drill program @ Telecom Hill
    Upgrade resource >50Mt with indicated and measure components
    Raise $10.5M through unlisted options (further $7.7M from listed options if before may 2011)
    Upgrade resource, meeting exploration target and defining "reserves"

    PDY will have no debt but no way of moving forward with development. At this point they could JV or sell Telecom Hill and have enough money to rapidly bring Mount Padbury into development (which could easily be as big as Telecom Hill or even bigger)

    I also like the sound of this alternate rapid pathway.....

    Conduct 3000-4000m drill program @ Telecom Hill (they should do as many holes as they can afford IMO)
    Define inferred JORC resource
    *** early JV with Sinosteel (I think the following terms would be awesome if PDY/AGU could score it)
    $ for $ up to $20M. If Padbury make it this far, (only through the exercise their options), the project is valued and PDY is compensated for the 50% should Sinosteel wish to continue. Thats a hard bargain, but it would be nice. Another way to describe this is Sinosteel pay the PDY JV a $20M option fee to purchase 50% of the project for X amount based on the project valuation once the $40M is expended.

    I consider this option like this to be one of the fastest routes to cashflow becasue a) they will effectively sell 50% for X amount and b) they retain 50% equity once they begin mining. Alternatively, they may also sell their remaining 50%.

    This option is fast because an early JV on the above terms allows for faster access to the money required for rapid development. Sinosteel are next door and no doubt share the resource. Sino have a large number of rigs at the ready to do the required drilling faster and cheaper. I can't think of a better rapid development option at the moment. The synergies with Sino are obvious and compelling IMO. However, Sino share a part of the Jack Hills resource with MMX and the tie up between them never happened, so nothing is guaranteed.

    The PDY/AGU JV can then focus on
    1) Mount Padbury DSO (equal to, if not larger than Telecom Hill)
    2) Mount Padbury Magnetite
    3) Mount Padbury Uranium (wild card, possible divestment)
    4) Narracoota Gold/VMS (possible divestment)
    5) Further acquisitions and growth paths

    PDY, as major shareholder in YRR, may assist in development of their projects for further equity.

    All of the above will require a focused and dedicated management team with the staying power to take it this far. If they are not up for it, please move aside now.

    PDY could be valued in the $100's of millions with no futher expansion to their capital structure of 3 billion shares fully diluted.

    All of this hinges of good results from the next Telecom Hill drill program due to commence this quarter. If that flops, well, it could be massive dilution or lights out.

    Anyway, this really was a quick run down of one of the strategies I have in mind. It can be expanded on to the nth degree, with parallel activities, alternatives, comparisons to others etc etc. I don't have the time to present that coherently for you readers at the moment. Ultimately, like for the last few years, I am looking to the company to clearly define their objectives and pathways to growth so that I no longer have to speculate.

    As usual, constructive comments are more than welcome.

    Trivia - FMG currently has how many shares on issue?
    Answer - 3 billion
    Whats the point? - exactly

    Cheers.
 
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