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Ann: Paradox Lithium Project DFS Confirms Outstanding Economics, page-226

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MauiJim

152 Posts.

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08/09/22

14:00

Post #: 63590263
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Originally posted by snickothemule: ↑

@ty42 I've held CXO from 50m mc in 2020 when they were still exploring, to the mine opening in November.

Around 50 million market cap on purchase to 2.6b today. During that time spodumene has gone from $1200/tonne to around $6000/tonne at auction (refer PLS and their BMX platform).

A rough comparison would be;

Explorer with good hits: 50m
Going for feasibility of a mine: 100-150m
DFS: 200-350m
Capital raise for construction: 500-600m
News on mine construction: 1.5b

Their mine construction time was 12 months, ASN are looking at 2 years from todays announcement.

If ASN have similar numbers/EBITDA then the price today is a bit higher at the DFS stage, but from what I can see the market may be saying;

DFS: 500m (50c)
Successful Cap Raise for construction: may push to 750-1000m (75-100c)
Mine construction finish 1.5-3b ($1.5-$3)

Note; these are assumptions I made on the dunny, they do not have any bearing on what will happen. This is just gut feeling from what I've seen the market do to CXO, PLS and other lithium players. ASN have very high quality carbonate with easy distribution to potential buyers (Tesla are one state over). They have a unique position that makes them look very good at the moment.

As usual DYOR, but have a look at the announcements from PLS and CXO over the past few years and have a look at the SP at each announcement post, it'll give you a gut feeling for market sentiment, but we have seen a huge rise in lithium value in the past 24 months. It's a white hot commodity and China is trying to soak up as much of it as possible.

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@ty42

Snick i think you're pretty spot on here (even if you were on the bogs at the time of calculations ahaha). We have seen other lithium players go up harder and faster though. would only need a couple of good updates in the future to race past your predictions and follow a similar trend to LKE and the like.

ASN Price at posting: 43.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last 10.0¢		Change -0.005(4.76%)		Mkt cap ! $129.0M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
10.5¢	11.0¢	10.0¢	$115.5K	1.107M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
43	3681734	10.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
11.0¢	374409	3

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
36	2207434	0.100
4	270090	0.099
2	44943	0.098
2	165000	0.097
1	10000	0.096

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.110	374409	3
0.115	371956	3
0.120	218290	4
0.125	413922	5
0.130	215685	8

Last trade - 16.10pm 02/08/2024 (20 minute delay)

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Ann: Paradox Lithium Project DFS Confirms Outstanding Economics, page-226

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Ann: Paradox Lithium Project DFS Confirms Outstanding Economics, page-226

Top Stories

Vmoto sales plummet -50% YoY as weak demand in Europe & China stifles EV scooter sales growth

Cost blow-out for Rook I uranium project sees share plummet for NexGen

Uranium prices on the NYMEX are stable, but ASX uranium stocks are sinking on Friday. The answer lies in Kazakhstan

Westgold sets its sights on top five producer status through merger with Karora

GreenX picks up prospective copper project in Germany

Venture to sniff out high-grade REE targets at Jupiter project, WA

Week 31 Wrap: JORC rules to get tougher; RBA rate hike chance 50/50; US Fed Sept cut still the quo

Commodity house Trafigura funds Develop Global's copper-zinc Woodlawn play with offtake deal in place

Collaboration in a green (steel) future the focus for Magnum and Saudi partners

Is oil undervalued?

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