If oil is over $100 and more importantly US gasoline prices over $5 / gallon in many swing states, the Democrats probably lose the mid-terms .
Now they have jaw-boned prices down with the SPR release (that ends in Oct just before the mid-terms) , rising interest rates / strong dollar, and, ironically, thanks to China’s multiple Covid lockdown(s), global demand had slowed too.
With the pressure off gasoline prices (at least dropping now) Biden & the Democrats probably now have a decent chance of winning the Senate and maybe 50/50 in Congress.
After November all bets are off.
Ann: Update on Bauna Intervention Campaign, page-24
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