I've been examining a few scenarios using the $$ model I built recently.
Here's an interesting one that imo is worth sharing:
Scenario:
- assumes resource expansion (circa x2 current) and LOM increase from say 14 years to 28 years
- ignores 2ktpa stage, examines 12ktpa production rate for 28 yrs
- assumes US$200M Capex plus US$35M contingency
- assumes Opex is US$6000/t in Yr1, increasing 2% each year
- assumes Admin costs and Sustaining Capital also increase at $2% per year
- Product pricing:
US$50k/t in yrs 1-3
US$40k/t in yrs 4-8
US$30k/t remainder
Outcomes:
Pre-tax NPV (8% DR) = circa US$3.5B
Total revenue (not discounted) = circa US$11B
Post-tax PROFIT (not discounted) = circa US$5.5B
This scenario generates billions of dollars in profit for AGY.
I wonder what we could do with billions of dollars?
Ohh... grow/expand and add even more value to the company...??
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Genuine comments/questions welcomed
Not advice
DYOR
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