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AGY LOM Equivalent, page-224

  1. 13,912 Posts.
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    I've been examining a few scenarios using the $$ model I built recently.
    Here's an interesting one that imo is worth sharing:

    Scenario:
    - assumes resource expansion (circa x2 current) and LOM increase from say 14 years to 28 years
    - ignores 2ktpa stage, examines 12ktpa production rate for 28 yrs
    - assumes US$200M Capex plus US$35M contingency
    - assumes Opex is US$6000/t in Yr1, increasing 2% each year
    - assumes Admin costs and Sustaining Capital also increase at $2% per year
    - Product pricing:
    US$50k/t in yrs 1-3
    US$40k/t in yrs 4-8
    US$30k/t remainder

    Outcomes:
    Pre-tax NPV (8% DR) = circa US$3.5B
    Total revenue (not discounted) = circa US$11B
    Post-tax PROFIT (not discounted) = circa US$5.5B

    This scenario generates billions of dollars in profit for AGY.
    I wonder what we could do with billions of dollars?
    Ohh... grow/expand and add even more value to the company...??

    $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

    Genuine comments/questions welcomed


    Not advice
    DYOR
    DYOMaths




 
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