AZL Weekly Report, page-120

Weekly Review Li Stocks - 16th Sep 2022

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis.

Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.

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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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I have also included my Diary - predictions, my holdings, my plans for the week. Caution around Diary - This is just my opinion/plan. Probability wise one person can be wrong many times, even all the time, so please use information accordingly. So for those who like leisurely reading, enjoy.
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There are no new additions this week, so my list contain 54 stocks.
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This week there are 3 addition to the list -
.1) Tracking rise from June Bottom - average increase 67%
2) My diary
3) 1 video around charts - In line with the videos I have been adding previously.
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Market continues to sit at pivotal zone, with a bearish outlook:

• Previously I have said that there are 2 key data that I am looking at this week
• First indicator I am looking at is SP 500 to stay above 3900 and first above 4120. We lost that and now SP 500 is at 3873
• Second indicator I am looking at is volatility index to go below 20 and stay below that. On Friday it closed on 26.30 - well above 20
• There is no denying that now both indicators are looking very bearish for medium term
• Ten year yield also rising high with 2 year yield, also its inverted - recession signals
• Last week many analysts from bearish were turning to neutral, they are back to bearish now
• For SP 500, most analysts now feel we will test June bottoms and could reach between 3600 and 3700 - roughly 7% down
• Many others still feel that there is a chance a figure close to 3100 to 3400 will be visited - if market drops, another 20% for SP 500 from here
• There is a case for bulls - key change could come on 21 Sep on Fed action/talk, or on Oct CPI data

Personally - Last week I had said that if 3900 does not hold or is not looking to hold, I will turn defensive. I did that this week and started getting into cash from Wednesday. Currently I keep 50% of my holdings long, don't try to trade. Rest that I trade and call trading stocks, have reduced my position this week. Chances are will continue to reduce further this week - depending on market
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Positives for this week:

• In all the gloom, we were still up 2% across 54 stocks for the week
• The macro for Li is strongest it have ever been - market seems to be recognising it.
• Last 4 weeks - -+5%, -5%, +13% and now +2% - very good one month
• We are 80% up from June bottom - a very great move
• For the year we are up by 50% across 54 stocks
• US Li and ASX Li slightly out of sync this week - We lost 2%, they lost 5% but may be Friday drop
• 10 Li stocks did their 52 week high this week - this would be the best performing sector across everything - in such uncertain conditions, still 20% of stocks I track did their 52 week high

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Negatives for this week:

• Although we gained 2% for the week, Friday US stocks fell and would have neutralised our gain
• When the going goes good, big stocks initially do well. Same way, if the going goes bad, they are the first to lose. Many big stocks in negative for the week
• Short term market is looking bearish

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Overall feel for next week:

• General feel is bearish
• Wednesday Fed Rate rise and Powell talk will provide direction
• There may be a short bounce possibly before Wednesday,
• We are closed on Thursday - so we will see 2 US trading days before ASX has to react - good in one way
• US markets did not fall very big on Friday but we fell big, so US Friday fall was somewhat baked in already on our Friday, we may be sideways on Monday - usual Monday blues - very tentative

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Here is the Figures for the Week:

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Figures for US Li stocks:
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Rise from June Bottom:
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DIARY - Here are the predictions and my personal plan for the week.
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1 Video:
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