OK... but:
- Path to profitability only relies on his word. If SPX is aiming to be profitable with just using 50% of the warehouse (which makes sense as they do not have the cash to use it fully given amount of first loss), then they need to generate revenues away from lending of about A$1.8mio per quarter if costs are maintained at the level observed over the last few quarters. So far, we have seen very little of those.
- I think he tried to depict Spenda as an established business with many years under his belt, now expanding into Asia. But the reality is that there has been no commercial success in Australia so far and the products/business model has not been validated down under. Given how fragile the economics are, I am concerned with the likely additional costs of that expansion.
- I very much dismiss the statement that there is no need for CR. They will likely have very little in their coffin by the time they can generate the level of non lending revenues necessary to be flat. And it is unlikely that the SP will rise above 2.5c (A$80mio valuation) on so little revenues - so no cash from option exercise.
- I think he is positioning SPX for a CR related to Asia expansion, hoping that they're won't be too many questions about the success in Australia. To be honest, whilst I am finding the story borderline dishonest, it might be our only way out (ie the only way SPX survives). Still, I thought the webinar was well constructed to deliver that narrative. So, being cynical, I would give him +1 for trying...
Overall, it seems it all relies on how much you trust AF. I appreciate some of you seem to be much more faithful. On my side, I see no proof from the pudding so far, and an history of underdelivering. Which makes me very doubtful. Hopefully the next 4C gives us some hope that SPX can indeed generate non-lending revenues. Maybe not enough yet, but I would like to see A$0.5-1mio to start feeling more optimistic.
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