Ann: Financial Results for 2021/22 Financial Year, page-28

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Beardy

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19/09/22

09:38

Post #: 63766571
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Originally posted by rogick: ↑

After digesting the financials and listening to the investor conference it is clear that the cash cost guidance is inclusive of costs associated with the mobile crushing plant while the main plant is being repaired. Had the fire not occurred, I would expect for normalised costs to be in line with the declining waste to ore stripping ratio.

As the cash cost guidance represents an average for the year, I expect for unit costs per tonne to be significantly higher in the current half year than in the second half. Firstly, due to the mobile crushing plant, secondly as the stripping ratio will be much higher in the current half year (3.5:1) than in the second half (1:1).

Outside of the serious questions that need to be asked about corporate governance and how this fire occurred in the first place, you would hope that insurance cover will provide some relief. The main impact will therefore be to the timing of cashflows (FY23 vs FY24). The ore is still there; mining is undisrupted. In my view the investment thesis is as compelling as ever.

The main concern I have is not over the project metrics but the fact that Management would find it hard to even forecast their next footstep. Whether it be coming in at the lower range of wmt guidance (or missing completely) or the delay of capex projects. I take any timeframes provided with a grain of salt (preferably from the Koolan Island basin!).

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rogick
Great post.
Given the international un certainty I can see 38 cents as the next stopping point

MGX Price at posting: 40.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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0 Great analysis

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