This resistance was expected! and it will be the boon to relenza sales weve all been anticipating. The real concern is whether the pandemic H1N1 acquires the binding domain changes that confer greater virulence. That, and the impact of a potential third wave of flu.
Notice the increase in reports of low reactors on the recombinomics site. This was expected as well! To my knowledge, vaccine failure has yet to be circulated by the international media, but if/when it does, governments should feel the heat. Public health experts/advisors will take note; future pandemic preparedness will involve a greater allocation of funds for procuring and stockpiling antivirals. The stock-piling market will get bigger, as will the season market......
On current trend, by 2011 the stock-piling market will hit $10 billion and the seasonal market $1 billion.....Beyond 2011, I think the seasonal market will expand significantly with the success of the prophylactic LANI study. What % of those markets will LANI and/or relenza command? What will the competition be? Phase III antivirals include Peramivir (soon to be dusted), LANI and favipirivir. The failure of Tamipoo and peramivir will drive global initiatives to fast track the next generation of antivirals. What a fortunate time to be bringing LANI to market.... There should also be plenty of interest in Flunet; enough for Biota to develop it for little cost, either partnered off or funded by NIH or another Govt.
Im starting to feel a bit like Tim Shaw from Demtel. Yet the evidence for resistance is there and it has unfolding as predicted. So I'm patiently holding my lot and am confident that Biota will have a big future. Cheers to those posters, past and present, with an eye for the fundamentals and a sense of the significance for which this pandemic will make Biota a (more) valuable company. Cheers all & have a great weekend.
BTA Price at posting:
$2.14 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
