I think of the oil price as a proxy for inflation, because the movement (and therefore supply availability) of goods is largely dependent on oil. It therefore also becomes a barometer of economic health, i.e. a recession means less goods moving around so lower oil demand.
However any correlation to thermal coal pricing is mostly indirect, given the latter is for energy (although some of WHC’s increased cost guidance for FY23 is because of higher diesel costs, so it does have a direct impact on miners).
That said, I did see a Bloomberg note which tried to explain yesterday’s selloff as investors fearing a recession would mean lower energy demand. This is partly true, i.e. factory shutdowns will mean less energy consumed in places like smelters and refineries, BUT all the people who wanted to be cold/warm in the factory will now be sitting at home wanting to be cold/warm, so it’s not a firm factor for me. I think it was mostly some analyst trying to find an intelligent-sounding explanation for the panic yesterday, which was more or less across the board, and was just that: panic.
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