ABSOLUTELY COMPELLING ECONOMICS, page-760

Hi All,

Yeah, I would not be worried about the short term, this is a forever stock for me, looking for some great dividends in the future. Recently, I was wondering what dividend amount could be on offer per share in the future, so I looked at some comparable(ish) companies using a simple DIV:REV ratio. This is the outcome.

Assumptions are:
- 20MTPA
- All monetary figures in AUD
- 200/T IO price (my thoughts are it will be much higher with green premiums etc.)
- 1.5B shares on offer
- Timeframe - long term (thinking 2-3 years into prod.)

Companies I have compared - GRR(2021 annual-so the special div is not included), FEX, FMG - to give a give a spread of small to large.

FEX:

Revenue = $249M
Div Pay-out = $24.19M
DIV:REV Ratio = 9.7%

GRR:

Revenue = $781M
Div Pay-out = $162M
DIV:REV Ratio = 20.7%

FMG:

Revenue = $17.39B
Div Pay-out = $6.699B
DIV:REV Ratio = 38.5%

HIO:

Revenue = $4B
DIV:REV Ratio of 9.7% = $388M = 25.87c/share
DIV:REV Ratio of 20.7% = $828M = 55.2c/share
DIV:REV Ratio of 38.5% = $1.54B = ~$1/share

Obviously these numbers look good and based off the IIR report on their website for 10MTPA with peak FCF of ~$1.2Bpa, even if you simply double that for the 20MTPA case, these figures, even $1/share could easily eventuate.

If the share price is at $10 (which a lot are calling for in the thread), a dividend of $1 is only 10% MC; which is about the sector standard.

Cheers, DYOR and keep holding strong.