AZL General Discussion, page-12614

Tentative Monday - sliding down

Yes AZL lost 1 pip to finish on 7.9c. Our volume was on much lower side, just over 13m shares traded. Market was very tentative today and it was good to hold this level. A slightly better market conditions and I feel we will quickly go to next number of 8.8c.

ASX Li stocks declined with indices. Of the 54 stocks that I track, average loss was 2%.


What next -

On Friday we did not get favourable job numbers and US indices had one of the biggest falls of recent times. ASX today followed suit, dropping nearly 1.5%. Although indices have had a big fall, comparatively in both US and ASX today, most of the stocks that I follow only had a moderate fall. As such, ASX is very tentative on Monday's, and usually has a small decline unless US had a big Friday, so the fall today was only a slight extent to it.

As I wrote on the weekend, one good thing we are seeing now is that punters are more resilient now. We capitulated in June bottom, and then we have seen how strongly we have risen since. That factor is important now and the resource stocks are still holding the line, even though indices are going down.

We have big news this week. On Wed - PPI and FOMC minutes and on Thu - CPI data (so Thu/Fri trading for us). Its another binary event which can give big gains or big losses - can't do much about it. But there is another 2 to 3 days of trading before that - chances are markets may remain sideways, though still tentative. But no doubt its in an unpredictable situation and possibly anything can happen.

From a chart perspective, those who follow elliot wave theory, from SP 500 perspective, either we are still in Wave 4 (going up) or we have completed Wave 4 and into Wave 5 (going down). If in Wave 4, there may be a retest again of 3800s possibly which happened recently. But there is a chance Wave 4 is complete with previous test of 3800 mark and we are in Wave 5 and could test recent low of 3585 in first instance.

Personally I am playing a bit defensive and want to see the CPI data and its reaction.

So what will happen tonight? US Futures are in medium red. Asian markets were all red and big drops. Volatility index VIX jumped to 31.36 on Monday - if things get worse a re-test of recent highs around 35 may happen. 10 year yield increased slightly on Friday, so going in wrong direction. Bond market is closed in US tonight. Cryptos are not providing any direction in recent weeks - Bitcoin has been steady between 19k and 20k for a number of weeks now. There was a big fall on Friday, so a bounce is warranted tonight even though everything is volatile. Will that happen? Lets hope so. All the best.