We have had two major milestones
!. The much heralded Tamiflu resistance has busted out of the possibility capsule it had been put in by who - up till now they explained this away as being expected random individual mutations, and this was being backed vigorously by Roche. With the H274Y tamiflu mutation now firmly following seasonal flu path toward 100 % resistance - and importantly backed by independent research from several sources- govt stockpiles have no choice but to order in more relenza and or fast track lani, This should erase any doubt that the rampt up gsk production will be fully sold and raises the real possibility for further announcements of increased production
2.Looks like the mutations occurring with swine flu have been confirmed to be causing more sever disease and possibly escaping vaccine efficacy- which will result in a greater immediate need to ensure antiviral stockpiles are replenished and effective.
All this and yet the stockand this tread has been soooo quiet - bots/lull before the storm/ fatigue - who knows but any way you analyze it it means greater profits for BTA - and potential for major upgrade in rating of this stock -
Only about six weeks till next royalty announcement which should be well up and with lani agreement pending any day and being negotiated under favourable conditions to severely understate it - this stock should be going wild - even if it's not- my point is it will have to at some time soon and no bot will have the depth to hold it back.
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Mark Waller, MD
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