I find many shareholders make the mistake of thinking "management are still confident about (XYZ) so it must be a goer!". In resource stocks, this is often said at PFS or DFS stage when a sub-par result occurs ("They wouldn't have released this report if they didn't think they could make it happen!" etc). The same behaviour is happening here: "they wouldn't run these roadshows if..." However in reality, any ASX-listed management team's livelihood depends on the project going ahead, especially if it's one they need to keep tapping the market for funding on - so they're always going to put the most positive slant on things, no matter the headwinds in front of them.
Separately, I think this is evidenced by the original comments from AVZ management when this matter first broke to the market on 4 May 2022, saying the proceedings were "pursued vexatiously and without foundation or merit". That same announcement also said the claims were "spurious in nature, without merit, contain fundamental and material errors, and have no substance or foundation in fact or law". Despite this confident pronouncement, over five months and nine (9!) suspension extensions later, it still drags on. At some point a very hard question is going to formally be put to AVZ management: what exactly did they know, and when? I am incredulous the ASX has allowed the 2-3 week extension debacle to drag on, and that AVZ could be so initially dismissive of matters that look like they'll trap shareholder capital in limbo for at least six months, if not more. Right now there's still lots of people running with the "in management I trust" line, but the longer this goes, I can see the tide of shareholder attitude turning. I would not be surprised to see an eventual class action against directors and officers, possibly around failure of continuous disclosure obligations. I for one will be curious to see how the AGM Q&A goes....
AVZ Price at posting:
78.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
