General Discussion, page-1041

The preliminary showdown tonight

Yes ESS remained flat to finish on 51.5c. Our volume was average, just over 2.6m shares traded. So we broke a 6 day sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Its clear the stock wants to run, but may need slight help from sector/market as well for now, pending another announcement. But still good to hold yesterday's level.

ASX Li stocks had a small decline. Of the 54 stocks that I track, average loss was 0.5%.

Overnight US Li stocks were mostly in red, average decline around 2%, though ETF of LIT gained just under 1%.

What next -

Yesterday US indices again went down except DOW. SP 500 losing 0.65% to be on 3588, another second lowest finish for the year. Nasdaq closed on another 2 year low. So no respite as yet. ASX though braved the negativity and was nearly flat in the end.

Yesterday SP 500 made a new yearly low intra-day of 3568 but gained in the end to finish above yearly low. So we have now done 3 reds in a row - its been such a year that it has become a regular phenomena - continuous down days. Something has to give soon as it is becoming relentless. The only solace I find is that since we are on yearly lows and have already declined a lot, hopefully there is much more on the upside than downside. But many analysts have been adamant that there is more pain, one common term they use is - if its cheap, it can become cheaper. Lets hope not. Many are calling for a bottom in October, so if they are right, we are getting closer.

Chart Perspective - If its to go down, first good level test around 3500, though there are numbers above as well. If it has to go up, 3660 on SP 500 is a key number to overcome in first instance.
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Tonight we have PPI (Producer Price Index) number an hour before market opens. It may be a good indicator of how much inflation the producers are facing, which can fore-shadow tomorrow's CPI number. But there can be a lag from Producer to Consumer - so difficult to predict CPI based on this. Its another binary event. I am not expecting any fireworks - there may be initial reaction, but then every one would wait for tomorrow. The FOMC minutes from September may provide some clues around what Fed is thinking, but again I feel it may not make much difference unless there is something very out of the way. The Fed are hawkish in the public speeches, they can't be dovish in meetings - and market has mostly factored in that hawkish stand, for now.

Personally I am still in wait stage - looking for market direction.

So what will happen tonight? US Futures moderately in green. Asian markets big red in HK etc, but flat other places. Bitcoin has held 19k again. Volatility index VIX on 33.63, another gain yesterday - getting in danger zone. Recent high of 35s in play. Bond Yields increasing, Dollar rising - but both are showing a bullish divergence - an indication that they may be topping - but PPI/CPI could overcome technicals. Another binary unpredictable night - we have not had good economic number for a while, probability wise we should be due for a good one soon . Will that happen? Lets hope so. All the best.