Obviously I didn't explain it clearly enough. My apologies. The 7 day EMA indicator requires the close to be above the 7 day EMA, which at the time of the original post (and close of normal trade) was clearly above - 522 versus 516, so forecast to rise. By the time auction finished with a concerted effort to short it down the close was 517 versus 516. That is too close. If I am out by even 1c in the EMA it would be below which indicates it will fall, and in any case at that level the indicator ceases to give a reliable predicted direction. So everything up until the auction was positive, but by the close of the auction we had a significant doubt inserted.
Secondly asb83 had forecast a further drop, and with the doubt over which wave we were in because of early anomalies in the pattern we get divergent predicted outcomes. The original wave selected by the chartists here collectively was lower than the expected wave 2 end point, but was a reasonable candidate at the time. Wave 2 should be 50 to 78% down, with a very high probability of being 78% down, wave 4 should be 38% down with a lower probability of being 50% down. If it went further down that becomes confirmation of wave 2, while if it reversed at this point and went up that became confirmation of Wave 4. Important because they give different ultimate highs.
TA is an exercise in probabilities, not absolutes, as it models sentiment. It is foolish to talk in absolutes when the your tool are probability based. Sometimes the probability is 50% in either direction, and those probabilities can shift in minutes. In this case the probability shifted from maybe 80% going upwards to 50% at best in the 10 minutes of the auction. They probably started shifting earlier because you will note that it hit my first predicted target for the day - 523, but missed the second 533 (peaking at 526), so that was an early indicator that something was going wrong. PLS can rise dramatically in the last 30 minutes of trade, so until the close of trade it was not certain that that second target was going to be missed as even the last 10 minutes could have seen it get there on past performance, and it wasn't until the auction close that it was turned upside down. It is a very rare event for PLS to deviate in the auction by more than 1c from its closing trade price. Yesterday it fell by 5c.
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