PLS chart, page-8366

The ranges for today are/were:

Oz short term: 477 - 523
Oz medium term 484 - 594
US lead basket: 467 - 519

As you can see the market has moved pretty much as expected. The only unknown was whether it was going to open up or down and then move in the other direction.

The tricky things here are that the 78% fib, the normal wave 1 target is around 465, while the 21 EMA is around 482. So it is normal for a support line to be tested - ie, the SP hits the support, bounces off it and comes back to test it. If it holds it is confirmed - but the SP has to come back to test it.

Our low for the day so far is 476, which is very very close to the 78% fib, and with in a cat's whisker of the 21 EMA, so I am not convinced there is any reason for surprise at this point, or for judging performance as "under". We have stayed within the two key ranges (Oz short term & US lead), it has found support on the retest around the EMA and almost reached the 78% fib (though not quite). Meanwhile NMT has retested and stayed at it's 78% fib. PLS could yet go down to its 78% fib, but it is getting to the risky part of the trade where it is very easy to miss the bounce.

Lastly PLS crossed back over the 7 ema and reached 5.3% below it today. That is not low enough for it to be a strong indicator of a rise, but the crossover into positive territory in the morning tilts the odds in that direction.

Turning to the US lead basket, while all stocks were green, they have all (with the exception of TSLA) stayed in their downward channels, although many are right on the edge of breaking through, and LAC may have broken through, but only just.

On that basis I have reentered all my trades after exiting entirely this morning on the rise to 519, (and rebuying 50% at 490'ish then exiting in the mid 480's when that didn't hold) and now rebuying 100% in the 470's.

Obviously, for what its worth, my judgement is that this is the retrace target region and it is time to recommit. It could go another 10c but my instinct is this is the better risk management position. If NMT breaks 102 I will reconsider.

ATM, I consider PLS has followed a normal wave 1 retrace pattern.